The Rundown
Trading Week: Dec 8–12, 2025 (Mon–Fri)
TLDR: The Dollar got wrecked. NFP missed, and the "higher for longer" narrative collapsed. EUR and GBP surged on pure repricing, while Gold shattered records above $4,300. State transition: Fed Pressed.
Forecast Scorecard
How did last week's Playbook hold up?
| Pair | Playbook Bias | Actual Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 🟢 Long | +0.45% | ✅ Hit |
| GBP/USD | 🟡 Neutral | -0.12% | ✅ Correct |
| USD/JPY | 🔴 Short | +0.30% | ❌ Missed |
| AUD/USD | 🟢 Long | +0.25% | ✅ Hit |
| USD/CHF | 🔴 Short | -0.18% | ✅ Hit |
| XAU/USD | 🟢 Long | +1.20% | ✅ Hit |
Accuracy: 5/6 (83%)
Assessment: Directional calls held on majors—EUR strength played out as expected post-ECB. USD/JPY short was invalidated early; yen weakness persisted on carry flows, keeping the pair elevated despite USD weakness.
Weekly State Table
| Pair | Close | Δ Week | Regime | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1690 | +0.45% | 🟢 Trending | ECB Hold |
| GBP/USD | 1.3305 | -0.12% | 🟡 Ranging | Mixed Data |
| USD/JPY | 155.70 | +0.30% | 🟢 Trending | Carry Bid |
| AUD/USD | 0.6580 | +0.25% | 🟡 Ranging | Risk-on tilt |
| USD/CHF | 0.8745 | -0.18% | 🔴 Soft | SNB Surprise |
| XAU/USD | 4,295 | +1.20% | 🟢 Bid | Risk-off flow |
Session Heatmap
Key State Shifts
- NFP Miss (The Invalidator): The "strong labor market" equilibrium collapsed. USD/JPY flushed, Gold ripped.
- Gold Breakout: XAU/USD trading above $4,250 is historic. Monetary debasement trade is dominant.
Momentum View: The trend is your friend, and right now, that friend is shorting the
Dollar.
